Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 2.393890 2.867281 3.397813 4.034664 4.776504 5.611421 6.620237
2025-12-07 1.611537 2.180130 2.887211 3.824080 5.024829 6.503369 8.451837
2025-12-14 1.206076 1.806390 2.619812 3.787147 5.400904 7.531752 10.532233
2025-12-21 0.944754 1.546314 2.424022 3.771819 5.756405 8.531528 12.654634
2025-12-28 0.817250 1.443112 2.415325 3.995023 6.445086 10.034513 15.602525
2026-01-04 0.695645 1.318853 2.344880 4.100592 6.954731 11.314274 18.340678
2026-01-11 0.612060 1.238109 2.324449 4.271449 7.570962 12.798393 21.508423
2026-01-18 0.518813 1.119412 2.217080 4.275344 7.906484 13.864305 24.110173
2026-01-25 0.423665 0.976123 2.040060 4.127163 7.958441 14.464090 26.001594
2026-02-01 0.346495 0.851519 1.874997 3.972051 7.970536 14.984445 27.788597
2026-02-08 0.298332 0.777689 1.795134 3.962917 8.238291 15.956346 30.408437
2026-02-15 0.259553 0.716294 1.729709 3.970652 8.533391 16.994674 33.217700
2026-02-22 0.221565 0.649372 1.643710 3.928909 8.736867 17.901363 35.900362
2026-03-01 0.179228 0.561210 1.495143 3.732786 8.608941 18.179048 37.458601
2026-03-08 0.153886 0.511427 1.426013 3.699509 8.808756 19.094887 40.278342
2026-03-15 0.133432 0.469977 1.369331 3.685368 9.045116 20.098644 43.339451
2026-03-22 0.126649 0.467245 1.409481 3.904271 9.811402 22.223825 48.743611
2026-03-29 0.115377 0.447795 1.402654 4.007778 10.329535 23.881116 53.332669
2026-04-05 0.107738 0.438174 1.420635 4.175198 11.009850 25.926789 58.845471
2026-04-12 0.095149 0.408401 1.377221 4.179023 11.307561 27.183514 62.823680
2026-04-19 0.079723 0.363863 1.282684 4.033845 11.231979 27.625883 65.130737
2026-04-26 0.066501 0.323105 1.191054 3.881888 11.120580 27.975783 67.259673
2026-05-03 0.058659 0.300909 1.152657 3.872940 11.365549 29.141154 71.223290